Probability of Ellie Foster pregnant from one or more eggs of Remuses


Briefing to the Board of IVF Inc.

Peter Taylor (pjt), 24 Feb. '03

Assumptions
• exact number of Foster eggs inserted is unknown, but “several” is most likely to be 3 or 4
• probability of inserted egg implanting = 0.3
• this is independent of total #s inserted or of egg source
• if Ellie Foster is pregnant with one or more eggs, couples will want to know the probability of one or more of these being from the Remuses


total # of fetuses gestating in Ellie Foster =
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5
  1. Remus fetuses (below)




0
 0.49
 0.22
 0.09
 0.03
 0.01
1
 0.51
 0.58
 0.46
 0.30
 0.16
2
0.20
 0.40
 0.52
 0.53
3

0.05
 0.15
 0.30

This chart is produced by a spreadsheet available on disk. The first two assumptions can be varied to see the resulting probabilities.